PRIME MINISTER

By Antonio C. Abaya
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>Written May 17, 2005
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>For the Manila Standard Today,
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>May 19 issue
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>In a television interview by Ricky Carandang on ANC Channel 21 last
>Monday, May 16, in which Rep. Constantino Jaraula (Lakas, Misamis
>Oriental) and I were asked our opinions on the parliamentary system of
>government, I essentially dwelt on only two points:
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>a) President Arroyo is laying the groundwork to run for prime
>minister, to stay in power beyond 2010; and b) although I have been
>pushing for a shift to the parliamentary system of government since
>the 1980s, I realize that simply making the shift will not result in
>meaningful changes in our political life unless our electoral system
>is first drastically changed, and only a revolutionary government can
>make those changes.
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>Let me explain the first point. Although as president of the republic,
>Mrs. Arroyo is titular head of a ruling coalition in which the lead
>party is Lakas (”the party of thieves,” according to Teddyboy Locsin),
>she actually has her own miniscule party, the KAMPI, which stands for
>something-or-other Mamamayang Pilipino.
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>Months before the May 2004 elections, KAMPI had been trying to
>establish its own identity as a party, independent of Lakas and in
>anticipation of the day when the child outgrows the father.
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>Mrs. Arroyo’s electoral victory in the May 2004 elections (under
>dubious circumstances, to say the least) has emboldened KAMPI to reach
>out for the stars, so to speak. It has forged an alliance with another
>miniscule, but once formidable, party, the Liberal Party. The naming
>of Rep. Butch Abad to the education department is a fruit of that
>alliance.
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>KAMPI is now aiming to raid the Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC)
>of business tycoon Danding Cojuangco, who in recent months has let it
>be known that he was no longer interested in running for president,
>after a disastrous attempt in 1992 and the realization of the futility
>of doing so in 1998..
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>More importantly, Danding has told his NPC members that they would now
>be free to affiliate themselves with whatever party they see fit. In
>practical terms, he is giving them a choice between Lakas and the
>emerging KAMPI. Sen. Angara’s LDP, coalesced with Estrada’s Partido ng
>Masang Pilipino, is too riddled with internal dissensions to be an
>attractive alternative. In addition, it is still reeling from the
>defeat, then death of, its lead icon FPJ.
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>But although Lakas still has the numbers, it is KAMPI that has the
>power of the purse, the ability to dispense patronage, since it is
>KAMPI’s Gloria, not Lakas’ De Venecia, who sits in Malacanang and is
>in the position to offer plum government positions, fat government
>contracts, and/or 2007 campaign funds to the soon-to-be orphaned NPC
>piglets looking for swollen and sympathetic teats to suckle on.
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>My sense is that after a few more pre-arranged court victories to
>protect his business empire and to absolve him of any wrongdoing,
>Danding will give the go-signal and most, if not all, of the NPC
>piglets will run squealing with delight all the way to the bursting
>KAMPI teats of the mother of all mothers.
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>In anticipation of this glorious day, KAMPI held what amounted to a
>party congress sometime last February, in which party president Rep.
>Ronnie Puno (KAMPI, Antipolo) rallied the trapo-troops to prepare them
>for the coming political battles.
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>Puno was not modest about his goals “on how we can make KAMPI a truly
>dominant party after the 2007 (congressional) elections…the
>objective should be to be the biggest political party in the political
>scenery. And to do this, if we quantify it, we have to have at least
>120 congressmen..” Puno claims that KAMPI already has 1,580 municipal
>mayors, or half the total number, as members. Having half the
>congressmen as well will truly make KAMPI “the dominant party after
>2007.”
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>The question is why would President Arroyo, halfway through her
>putative nine-year stay in Malacanang, plan at all to make her
>miniscule KAMPI party into “the dominant party after 2007,” only three
>years before her constitutional non-extendable term as president
>expires in 2010?
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>There seems to be only one logical explanation: she plans to remain in
>power even after 2010, and she can do this legally only if the
>constitution is amended to allow a shift to the parliamentary system
>of government. Just as Ferdinand Marcos did in, I believe, 1976.
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>Sure enough, a few days after the party congress in February, the
>party bigwigs met in executive session and are said to have decided a)
>to push for a shift to the parliamentary system in or after 2007; and
>b) to contest the coming parliamentary elections, with Mrs. Arroyo as
>party standard bearer.
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>There would be nothing criminal or illegal about this, unless the
>constitutional amendments specifically prohibit current holders of
>elective public offices from taking part in the subsequent
>parliamentary elections.
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>Which prohibition is highly unlikely since the amendments will be
>written in by the incumbent trapos and dynasts (if they are convened
>as a constituent assembly) or by their relatives and
>assignees-in-interest (if a constitutional convention is elected or
>appointed).
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>In both scenarios, the intent will be to ensure that as many as
>possible of their incumbent trapos and dynasts in Congress (and
>Malacanang) will segue seamlessly into the succeeding parliament. Some
>old-fashioned cheating by Comelec, especially in Western Mindanao,
>concealed with the aid of Namfrel, will also come in handy, as it did
>in 2004.
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>Plus ca change, plus la meme chose. The more things change, the more
>they stay the same. Goodbye, President Gloria. Hello, Prime Minister
>Gloria.
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>In the Westminster model of the parliamentary system (which seems to
>be the preferred choice), one does not really “run for prime
>minister.” One runs for a seat in parliament in one’s electoral
>district. The party that wins a majority of the seats gets to form the
>government, with the party chair chosen by his/her party peers to be
>prime minister.
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>There’s absolutely no doubt that Mrs. Arroyo would easily win in her
>electoral district in Pampanga in 2007. But it is not absolutely
>certain that KAMPI will win a majority of the seats in parliament, as
>Ronnie Puno wants, given the plummeting popularity and approval
>ratings of President Arroyo.
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>Unless her public image improves dramatically, her endorsement of the
>other KAMPI candidates may turn out to be a kiss of death. Or it could
>even lead to a premature political demise if public disenchantment
>swells to insurrectionary levels (fueled by the ongoing escalation in
>the cost of living) and she is swept away by another People Power
>exercise before 2007.
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>To pre-empt both possibilities, Malacanang is working overtime to
>burnish President Arroyo’s image. Right after “accepting the offer of
>the Public Relations Society of the Philippines” to improve her image,
>President Arroyo met with the country’s top print and electronic media
>moguls who promised to “let the public know that the President had
>nothing to do with the high oil prices.” (Inquirer, May 17.)
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>Malacanang political technicians have also identified Evangelist Eddie
>Villanueva as the strongest likely challenger to President Arroyo in a
>pre-2007 confrontation and they have moved to isolate and neutralize
>him. Villanueva now faces a P70 million estafa case, filed by a cousin
>of First Gentleman Mike Arroyo, and a warrant for his arrest has been
>issued. When this “man of God” is photographed in handcuffs, that may
>well spell the end of his political career.
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>Unknown to many in the middle class - it was unknown to me until
>someone sent me a recent clipping from the Straits Times of Singapore
>- is the emergence of a new tabloid called Pasa’Yo (”For You”),
>which, like the Inquirer’s Libre, is distributed free of charge to
>riders of the LRT and MRT. I understand Pasa’Yo will also be given
>away free in squatter colonies, bus stations, airports and seaports.
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>A brainchild of my namesake Anthony Abaya (no relation), one of the
>media manipulators of President Arroyo (as he also was of President
>Ramos), Pasa’Yo is specifically designed to give a positive spin to
>the day’s news so that President Arroyo comes out looking good all the
>time. Our very own version of Pravda.
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>Under the parliamentary system, a prime minister can remain in office
>for as long as his/her party retains a majority of the seats in
>parliament, as determined in general elections every five years or so.
>Under this set-up, Lee Kwan Yew was PM of Singapore for 30 years;
>Mahathir Mohamad of Malaysia for 22 years.
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>Prime Minister Gloria will be around for a very long time. Better get
>used to the idea. ***** Reactions to acabaya@zpdee.net or
>fax 824-7642. Other articles in www.tapatt.org.
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